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On Monday, the Credit Union National Association (CUNA) released the August 2019 edition of its Economic Update, sponsored by the CUNA Finance Council. In this issue, Deputy Chief Advocacy Officer and Chief Economist Officer Mike Scheck discusses the possibility of an economic recession and looks beyond the now inverted yield curve for significant signs of weakness.
“Uncertainty and volatility have increased dramatically over the past several weeks – mostly due to increasing concern about tariffs and the risk of full-blown trade war,” Schenk said. “As a result, many bond investors migrated to Treasuries – the safest investments on the planet. The resulting big increase in demand pushed Treasury prices higher.”
The August video also features:
- The cause of an inverted bond yield curve for 2019
- Discussion of a variety of leading economic indicators & what they’re now implying
- The likely near-term path for credit union operating results
“Consumers are likely to be more cautious in the current environment but there isn’t a lot of compelling evidence that they’ll be retrenching, Schenk adds. “Against this backdrop, it seems reasonable to expect credit unions will continue to see decent, though slower, loan growth, high asset quality and healthy bottom-line results over the next 12 to 18 months.”
The August 2019 CUNA Economic update is available to all CUNA members. To watch the video and other past updates, visit cuna.org/economicupdate.